#(except shireen)

[ai-manre]

Whenever I see someone say that Jon lies to himself that he likes warrior women because he thinks himself "undeserving" of feminine women, I just know that person has never read a Jon chapter except to find quotes to take out of context.

Like read one chapter of his in ADWD and his disdain for "southrons" and for all conventional feminine women is easy to see. Jon as a person just doesn't appreciate passivity, he doesn't like people who stand aside and do nothing. Him saying "not some willowy creature brushing her hair waiting for a knight to rescue her" is very on brand for his general dislike. This quote is just where he lays it out the most clearly, but it's EVERYWHERE in his POV. The extreme fondness and affection he has for Arya and her defiance, her stubbornness, her wilfulness. The way he keeps looking and finding these qualities in every woman he likes: Ygritte, Val, Alys, the girls volunteering to be spearwives etc. He enjoys Ygritte's stubbornness and fire, admires Val's independence and strength, gets attached to Alys due to her fearlessness. By contrast, he has nothing but disdain for Selyse "the conventional feminine woman" and nothing but indifference for Shireen, and uncaring of Gilly.

Don't know why someone would try to deny that quality of Jon's, when it's a beautiful connection he has to his own mother. His mother who was just like Arya, a proof of how close he would have been to Lyanna, how much they would have loved eachother. That Lyanna was everything he admires and loves in a woman, everything he could have dreamed of in his mother.

[huntingthenarrative]

I just want Shireen to be happy, and for everyone to leave them alone, except for Davos he can come visit

[racefortheironthrone]

If Robert had died and Stannis claimed the throne and married Cersei how would their marriage looked like without the Lyanna situation and considering Stannis being an awkward dingle dongle with women (and people in general)? Oh and y'know the whole Jersei situation too.

I've read more than a few fics with this scenario, and no two of them agree as to how their relationship would go - because these are two very complicated people, particularly in their relationship with gender.

Stannis can be pretty misogynistic even as he makes exceptions for particular women like Shireen or Melisandre - the question is whether he makes an exception for Cersei. I think he would see Cersei in seductive mode as very threatening to his self-control, and he certainly would react in a very cold anger to Cersei publicly challenging him, but I think he would include her in his councils (he did it for Selyse, who isn't nearly as smart as Cersei) and would probably be comfortable with giving Cersei "soft" power, a combination of diplomat and mistress of whispers.

As for Cersei...I think her feelings about Stannis could go either way. He's not as pretty or romantic as Jaime, and I absolutely think there would be a major issue where Stannis would not let Jaime anywhere near his wife even if he didn't know about the incest. So I could see her resenting him for that and being cold and generally passionless (at least until she figures out his levers). That being said, Cersei also has major daddy issues, and Stannis could fit the role of Tywin-but-listens-to-me, and that might really do it for her.

So I could see it either being a disaster or a dangerous power couple and nothing in between.

[timetravellingkitty]

hi!! I just found out about tumblr having an anti-hindutva tag and I shall be making myself comfortable here! just found your account like a few mins ago and if it’s ok, i wanted to ask some questions (you absolutely don't have to answer if you don't like any of them or even if you don't feel like answering :) ) (edit added, this ask got way too long lol. feel free to skip it! also, you're kinda super cool lol)

I'm Indian, currently outside India, and I've only started learning about the shitshow going on in my 'mahaan bharat' since November (specifically since finding out that we are Irahell's biggest weapons buyer). and the more I find out the more shocked and heartbroken I feel...

like this week i learnt about the immigration ban in US against Chinese women that existed a few decades ago, and the ongoing discrimination against Palestinians in Canadian immigration services... and both the times I was so disgusted and there was this subconscious feeling that India should never be like that. but then an hour ago I learnt about the 2019 CAA and wtf!?

another example being that currently we're seeing israhell's continuous bombing of heritage sites of great cultural and religious significance, that also held so many centuries old records and histories... and learning about how they are bulldozing over graveyards and exhuming them...

and then today I learnt about Akhonji Masjid and Gyanvapi Masjid and of course have known about Babri Masjid for a few weeks now...

and only learnt about Kashmir in november...

and I feel like my whole worldview has shifted from a previous foundation, except it's so drastic and I still don't have a new foundation...

I try to talk to members of my family about this but they're the Indian equivalent of the U.S. liberals, and every single time they'll tell me "whatever news you're hearing is propaganda written by Pakistan/China/U.S./Russia. trust me I have Muslim friends and they're very happy. you just don't know the situation cause you're not in India" and like it sometimes make me think maybe I'm the one losing my mind...

I even read some places about free Punjab and that confused the fuck out of me cause I'm Punjabi (who does not live in Punjab) and I don't have any clue what it's about... I asked my fam, but they just gave me a weird look and told me to stay away from anyone that mentions Khalistan😭💀

(this got way longer than I expected, so sorry) but would you have any recommendations for any blogs/articles/books/podcast resources or any personal recommendations for news publications that are reliable (finding God would probably be easier than finding such publications lmao) like I thought Al-Jazeera is super credible, but then read that they're super credible when it comes to Palestine, not when it's global...

like where tf do I go from here lol

hello nonnie! some news sites I'd recommend are newslaundry (they have a youtube channel too), the wire, scroll.in and newsclick. maktoob media is mostly focused on minority rights in india. hindutvawatch.org is about hindu fascist violence committed against minorities. I still think you should stick to al-jazeera at least when it comes to palestine (they have journalists on the ground there, shireen abu akleh was one of them)

this is a good introduction to anyone wanting to learn about hindutva, this and this are about how india is becoming increasingly unsafe for minorites and is undergoing a democratic backsliding. this and this are about the rss link to nazism

hostile homelands by azad essa is about india's historical relationship with israel and the parallels between hindutva and zionism. the brown history podcast has an episode about how india went from the first non-arab state to recognise palestine to its largest buyer of weapons, featuring azad essa (x). you can also read colonising kashmir by hafsa kanjwal about how india came to militarily occupy kashmir. if you want to learn more about kashmir there are the blogs kashmiraction.org and standwithkashmir (which is um. blocked in india. i wonder why)

i have not read khaki shorts and saffron flags yet but this one is about the history of the rss. i also suggest watching the documentaries ram ke naam and jai bhim, comrade which are about the hindutva mobilisation in the 1980s

for me free punjab is very ?? the indian government is beyond evil as they continue to spy on sikhs abroad (and ofc, the 1984 sikh genocide) but i don't think liberation will be achieved through a religious ethnostate. any state formed on the basis of religion will inevitably turn out to be a disaster. i do encourage you to read lost in history: 1984 reconstructed by gunisha kaur, which is about the human rights violations committed against sikhs during this time and why operation bluestar was in fact not about freeing sri harmandir sahib from "terrorists." all i can say is to stand with sikhs unapologetically as our shitass government continues to commit more and more human rights violations against them

in general, i'd tell you to observe the language used by different news outlets and question it (eg. american news referring to israelis below the age of 18 as children but the same courtesy is not extended to palestinians) and check their sources. if it's from whatsapp university don't even bother

[murmel-malt]

Hi, so I have a question, about Arwyn. WHO is her mother? From which House is she? Die Arwyn get her sharp mind Not only from Leyton but maybe also from her Mother?

Sorry to bombard you like that. I hope you have a nice day.

Thank you so much for giving me the opportunity to info dump about about my baby! I looove talking about her so much.

Arwyn’s momma is Leyton’s canon current wife, Rhea Florent. So she is is related to both Samwell Tarly (their mothers are sisters) and Shireen Baratheon (their moms are cousins) <3

I headcanon Rhea as quite smart (though not in a scholar-y way) herself and I’d like to imagine that she saw her marriage as the gold mine it was. Because she’d be the fourth wife and her husband was not only quite old but also already had a shitton of children so it was unlikely that she’d have to go through excessive pregnancies herself and would be able to live comfortably as Lady Hightower and be provided for. Except she got bored (and a bit lonely) very quickly so she pushed for a child.

She got her baby, her special little girl, and discovered her natural curiosity and thirst for knowledge and nurtured the shit out of that. I am talking extra lessons with the Maester, all the books Rhea can get her hands on, language tutors. I mean, she is the fourth wife, her daughter is the 11th child, no one really cares what they are doing. And if they do, who is going to stop Lady Hightower from giving her child the education she deserves? Not her husband. He is up there in his fantasy man cave, perfectly content to let her do her thing as long as she doesn’t bother him - that’s why they had the kid to begin with. And once Leyton does get involved there isn’t really anything anyone can do about it. Arwyn gets her own special private Maester (who is willing to sneak her into the Citadel) and is allowed up in the tower (with supervision!!).

So yeah, Arwyn definitely got her brains from both her parents but it was her mother who nurtured that intelligence while her husband had a very hands-off approach until Arwyn decided otherwise.

Wholesome fun fact: Rhea’s favorite nicknames for her daughter are ‘Wynnie’ and ‘my little fox’.

[b-does-the-write-thing]

general incivility, chapter five

  - a brienne x jaime pride & prejudice retelling -

chapter one l chapter two  l chapter three l chapter four l chapter five

Two days after the assembly, the Lannisters paid a visit to Storm’s End. Their visit was quickly returned, and from there, Lady Baratheon was pleased to circulate throughout the Stormlands that further acquaintance with Miss Baratheon was pursued by Miss Lannister. 

“The young ladies are increasingly fond of each other. Why, the Lannisters have dined with us twice now in a fortnight and are due to visit again this very evening!”

Though initially a bit taken aback by this development, Shireen was pleased to become the dear friend of such an accomplished woman as Cersei Lannister. 

Brienne perceived things rather differently.  

The Tarths had been invited to each of the dinners to better fill out the party, and while it was true Cersei Lannister did actively seek out Shireen’s company, Miss Lannister’s overall manner and tone were always vastly superior towards everyone, often bordering on arrogance. Her manners were always excellent but Brienne did not miss the double entendres of her words, often directed at the lack of culture and beauty of the Stormlands and its inhabitants. 

After careful consideration, Brienne rather suspected Miss Lannister’s attention was less due to the enjoyment of their company and more about Baratheon’s connection to the Iron Throne. She refrained from voicing these suspicions as she did not want to dampen her younger friend’s happiness. 

Occupied in observing Shireen’s growing relationship with Miss Lannister, Brienne did not realize she herself was the object of growing interest to one of the party members. 

Jaime Lannister had been taken aback to find Brienne Tarth in the dinner company at Storm’s End, but Cersei had later explained Miss Tarth was the only friend of the young girl, as no other families in the area would dine with the Baratheons for fear of catching grayscale over soup. After Jaime’s brief sight of Miss Tarth at the assembly, the sheer absurdity of her had hung in his mind, as a particular oddity is wont to do.

Truly unfortunate was a kind way to describe the lady, and yet, the more Jaime looked, the more he found himself unable to look away. He spent most of the first night trying to best determine the exact shade of her eyes and finally determined they were the same blue as a crystalline lake in the mountains. In his morbid curiosity, he learned in that evening alone, without speaking a word to her, that she was not fond of partridge and had a tendency to grow flustered if addressed directly in conversation but was not unintelligible when she composed herself to reply.

Upon the ride home, Cersei had been particularly vicious on the subject of Miss Tarth. Judging his cousin had not missed his particular attention on said lady throughout the evening, Jaime made it clear to himself and his companions that Brienne Tarth was the most unfortunate creature that had ever walked this earth. Satisfied, Cersei proceeded to sharpen her claws on how intolerable she found the elder Lady Baratheon. 

Jaime resolved that to be the end of the matter until Cersei invited the two ladies to join them for dinner later that same week. Everyone had one redeemable quality, and Miss Tarth’s just happened to be those remarkable eyes, so of course, when she smiled or laughed, they lent a slight charm to her otherwise homely face. 

Except as soon as he acknowledged that truth, he then began to notice her lips were rather full and often quirked upwards in pleasant reverie when she was not caught out or being forced to endure whatever ordeal was taking place at the moment. And while all her gowns were years out of fashion and only served to further make her look altogether too broad and heavy for anyone to consider pleasing, she had an uncanny sort of grace when she walked, a lightness that belied her stature. 

Brienne remained perfectly unaware of this development, as Lord Lannister had yet to speak a single word to her directly. It was not until a large party was assembled at Storm’s End did Brienne notice his eye upon her.

“Whatever have you done to Mr. Lannister?” Shireen asked after Brienne pointed it out to her. 

“Nothing in the slightest!”

“Well, we shall find out shortly, as he is coming this way,” Shireen announced. Before Brienne could escape, Shireen called out for him to join them. “I was just entreating Brienne to speak to Lady Whent about hosting a ball at Harrenhal.”

“And I was refuting the need for another dance so soon after our last.”

Lord Lannister raised a sardonic brow. “It is my experience that all ladies are keen for any and all opportunities in which to dance.”

“Your experience is limited to ladies of beauty and grace,” Brienne replied back before she could think better of her words. “Those ladies who are not gifted with such accouterments find dances to be a dreadfully different business.”

Behind them, a member of the party had opened up the instrument and began to play. Shireen brightened as Beric Dondarian led Cersei out for an impromptu dance. Struck by this idea, several others in attendance began to join them, including Tyrion and one of the youngest Penrose girls. 

Shireen brightened in a way that boded ill for Brienne. “Shall we put your sentiment to the test, Brienne? Surely Lord Lannister would not mind partnering with you for one song?”

“You twist my words to sound bitter,” Brienne said, drawing away from them. 

Jaime stepped forward and offered her his hand. “I would be most willing if you are, Ms. Tarth.”

She did not so much as regard his outstretched hand. “Thank you for the thought, but there is no need, I assure you. Excuse me, I believe I see my father looking for me.”

And just as neat as that, she was gone as the first song came to a close. Cersei appeared at his side with her dance partner on her heels. “Mr. Dondarian had high hopes to continue dancing,” Cersei said pointedly to Shireen, “but I am quite spent and could not oblige him.”

It was quickly decided that Shireen would be an ideal partner in her stead and they departed to join in for the next song. Jaime paid either of them little mind as he watched Brienne move around the edge of the room. Her declination of his offer had intrigued him and he was watching to see what she would do in the case of another offer.

“Jaime! Have you heard a word I’ve been saying to you?” He turned to find his cousin frowning up at him. “Do I interrupt your reverie?”

“Not at all. I was just musing on why a lady of little prospects would turn down an opportunity to dance.”

Cersei’s eyes went wide. “And which lady would be so foolish as to turn down a dance with a lion of Casterly Rock?”

“Miss Brienne Tarth.”

To his surprise, Cersei began to laugh. “Miss Brienne Tarth!” she echoed. “Why, Jaime, dear. Of course, she declined. The gentlemen of the region have long asked her to dance and then purposefully ridiculed her by leaving her waiting on the floor. She no doubt thought you meant to do the same.”

His brow furrowed at this news. “Why in the Warrior's name would I do that? What purpose does such behavior serve?”

“A lark is a lark,” Cersei said dismissively. “The question is, why would you ask Miss Tarth at all. You despise dancing.”

Her tone was prying, and he was in no mood for his cousin's acerbity. “This is true. Perhaps I have yet to meet the right partner.”

--

I'm amusing myself with this shorter bite-size chapter style. It's leading to quite an interesting structure, but I'm enjoying the practice so far.

[havingapoemwithyou]

Daydream by Maya Abu-Alhayyat tr. by Fady Joudah

I selected this poem by Maya Abu Al-Hayyat, from her collection You Can Be The Last Leaf, before journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was assassinated. It is a coincidence that its opening line names Jenin, the city where Shireen stood in a helmet and Kevlar vest emblazoned with the word PRESS, to report on yet another Israeli military incursion into the often-punished refugee camp on the last morning of her life. But there aren’t really coincidences in the Palestinian conversation. Maya’s book, her American debut, was published last week. At the edge of that night, morning in Palestine, Shireen was shot in the head by an Israeli sniper. Shireen was an exceptional journalist, but she was also a fixture of daily Palestinian life. Maya’s poems are made of such dailiness, the extreme violence of a colonizing force punctuating days filled with humor and compassion and small failures and sweeping loves.

What stays with me most of Shireen’s historic funeral is the sight of her best friends, the women whose oceanic grief could not be held back, and the stories we are learning about how, in life and in death, they carried each other. We Palestinian women are in conversation in time-defying, siege-breaking ways. There is a net we weave with our voices, to hold each other. And that embrace, that loud resilient Palestinian love was on full display as Shireen’s body travelled from Jenin to many of the cities and refugee camps named in this poem, where her Palestinian family greeted and mourned her. People who had never met her paid their condolences to one another, dressed her in rose petals and olive branches and prayers, in Palestinian flags and in our grandparents’ kuffiyehs, stood together against violent blows, and sang her home to Jerusalem.

—Lena Tuffaha

[windriverdelta]

On Stannis Baratheon's eventual fate in the ASOIAF books

So, we know that Stannis Baratheon is going to burn his daughter alive in the books like in Game of Thrones, since Martin has confirmed that this is one of his "moments" for GoT. That naturally raises the question of what will happen to Stannis afterwards.

TL;DR, I find Stannis becoming a Night's Watch member - and probably Lord Commander - by the end of ASOIAF the most likely outcome.

In the show, Stannis lost the subsequent battle with the Boltons and was then killed by Brienne. While the same battle ("Battle of Ice") is also happening in the books shortly after the Theon TWOW chapter, we can actually rule out this scenario rather easily for the books. One, Shireen is hundreds of miles away in Castle Black, and there is no way that she could get to Stannis in time to get burned. Two, Stannis is likely going to win the battle and seize Winterfell afterwards, for both plot and theme reasons. Three, in the Davos ASOS chapters we see that Stannis is prepared to burn an innocent child alive ... to save a million from the dark. A.K.A from the Others, not for a battle. And Melisandre wanted to wake a dragon from stone with said sacrifice, but there is no stone dragon available anywhere except maybe in Winterfell. Fourth, Brienne is nowhere near close enough to Stannis and the only appearance of Stannis in her POV is this:

They are not his sons. Stannis told it true, that day he met with Renly. Joffrey and Tommen were never Robert's sons. 

This isn't the comment she'd make if she still cared deeply about avenging Renly - especially when contrasted to this:

Timeon was still trying to fight as she pulled her blade from him, its fullers running red with blood. He clawed at his belt and came up with a dagger, so Brienne cut his hand off. That one was for Jaime. 

Fifth, Stannis being Azor Ahai is one of the lies Daenerys has to slay. Him falling against the Boltons would break that prophecy.

In fact, I am going to go out on a limb and say that any scenario that has Stannis dying before the invasion of the Others is ruled out for the above reasons. That probably guarantees his survival into ADoS, since it's likely that the climax of the Other invasion and Daenerys' arrival happen there.

That leaves a few scenarios. The one where he is killed by Daenerys is seemingly unpopular, probably for good reason: There isn't much of a concrete reason for her to do so - especially since in the books, the conflict and eventual destruction of King's Landing likely precedes Daenerys' arrival in the North - and when you look closely you notice that the "blue-eyed king" (=Stannis) isn't actually the subject of the slayer of lies prophecy, while the "cloth dragon" (=Aegon) and "stone beast" (=Euron?) are. A hint that this encounter will be less lethal.

A very popular theory is that Stannis becomes the new Night's King. Probably unjustifiably so, though:

The similitude between the two isn't that great. Melisandre as we see in her POV chapter isn't actually an Evil Seducer, while the woman with the Night's King seems to fit the description of the Others more. Human sacrifice wasn't the Night's King's foremost sin, either. Finally, lots of people other than the Night's King resided or set foot in the Nightfort, there is no evidence that it has a cursing effect akin to the Harrenhal curse, and Stannis hasn't actually visited it yet.

Going by Old Nan's tale of the Night's King, it seems like he was seduced by the power to betray humanity to the Others. While Stannis contemplates sacrificing one person for humanity. In other words, the exact opposite motivations. In this context, @turtle-paced's analysis of the Night's King here as book!Euron should be read.

Oh yeah, and the Euron Greyjoy we see in TWOW The Forsaken preview chapter is a far better candidate for "new Night's King" than Stannis (or Jon Snow, or Bran)

The second-to-last theory is that Stannis simply dies, presumably in battle against the Others, after the attempt to awake a dragon with thr Shireen sacrifice fails. Given that the "slayer of lies" prophecy and the discussions between Melisandre, Maester Aemon and Jon Snow imply that Stannis isn't Azor Ahai, I think it's safe to assume that the sacrifice will indeed fail. That said, while once again @turtle-paced wrote an argument I once again can't find about how this outcome would be in character, I don't recall any specific foreshadowing.

The last theory also presumes that the sacrifice will fail, but that Stannis will join the Night's Watch in atonement at the end. And that, well, has some foreshadowing: In Jon XI ASOS:

They found Stannis Baratheon standing aloneat the edge of the Wall, brooding over the field where he had won his battle, and the great green forest beyond. He was dressed in the same black breeches, tunic, and boots that a brother of theNight's Watch might wear. Only his cloak set him apart; a heavy golden cloak trimmed in black fur, and pinned with a brooch in the shape of a flaming heart

Jon VIII ADWD, in particular considering the fact that the Shireen sacrifice will consist of burning her alive as per the other sacrifices Melisandre and Stannis have carried out:

Jon's temper flashed. "They have followed worse. The Old Bear left a few cautionary notes about certain of the men, for his successor. We have a cook at the Shadow Tower who was fond of raping septas. He burned a seven-pointed star into his flesh for every one he claimed. His left arm is stars from wrist to elbow, and stars mark his calves as well. At Eastwatch we have a man who set his father's house afire and barred the door. His entire family burned to death, allnine. Whatever Satin may have done in Oldtown, he is our brother now, and he will be my squire."

And given that Stannis takes advice from a King's Landing smuggler and will win the battle of Winterfell with pirate tactics ("wrecking" with false lighthouses; Davos I ADWD), Davos II ACoK:

"Salladhor Saan thinks only of gold!" Stannis exploded. "His head is full of dreams of the treasure he fancies lies under the Red Keep, so let us hear no more of Salladhor Saan. The day I need military counsel from a Lysene brigand is the day I put off my crown and take the black." The king made a fist. "Are you here to serve me, smuggler? Or to vex me with arguments?"

Moreover, it's noted in-story that Jon Snow is the 998th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, and after his assassination we'll probably see the election of a 999th afterwards - probably one of the mutineers. That leaves slot 1000 for after the series, since the Wall will almost certainly fall, and it calls for a big name. And the dutiful, skilled-in-military-matters, not very sociable Stannis Baratheon would probably fit right in the Night's Watch.

[atopvisenyashill]

house frey and the inheritance of the twins

obviously it's been suspected that Red Wedding 2.0 will be happening in part to whittle down the family tree enough so that a Good Frey (tm) can take over the Twins. i just wanted to lay everyone i thought was a candidate out and solidify an opinion here.

FIRST OF ALL, i like to group the freys in my head according to their mom’s houses (since, ya kno, they’re all freys lol). I’m not listing every single frey (it would be hard since you can't do subbullet points in tumblr anyway) but here's sort of a general overview of succession, with my format being Walder’s Wife House -> “Cadet” Branch Houses. also this is just how I organize all these people in my mind, so if it doesn't make sense just ignore it, it's not here, skip down to the green text-

Royce Freys -> Main Branch Royce Freys, [Vance Freys], Vale Freys, [Lannister Freys], Wylde Freys, [Haigh Freys]

Swann Freys -> they’re mostly dead or at Oldtown so I just lump all of the Swann Freys together

Crakehall Freys -> Main Branch Hosteen Freys, Braavosi Freys, Darry Freys, Waynwood Freys, Beesbury Freys, [House Vypren]

Blackwood Freys -> Lame Lothar Freys, Paege Freys, [House Brax]

Rosby Freys -> this one is easy because it's just Perwyn, Benfrey, Olyvar, and Roslin.

Farring Freys -> again, easy because none of them have kids so they're all one branch. This branch includes several of the maids presented to be wives for Robb/Edmure/Roose including Arwyn and Shirei, as well as Elmar, the boy who was briefly betrothed to Arya

brackets are female lines (as in, a daughter that married another house) so they’re not technically “Freys” tho i’m sure a lot of them would be willing to change their names for a shot at owning the Twins. Lannister Freys are in brackets bc altho they’re male line, I don’t think they’re in line for the Twins anymore bc the Crown gave them Riverrun (and they’re probably all gonna die before they can get back in the running for the Twins so they don’t count lol).

NOW. WHOMST DO I THINK IS LIKELY TO INHERIT? LET'S DIG IN-

Walda Frey - 2nd in line for the Twins currently

Please applaud the highest ranking person on this list. She is the direct descendant of Walder, of the main Royce Freys branch, being his great great granddaughter. It goes-

Walder -> first born son Stevron (dead) -> first born son Ryman (dead) -> first born son Edwyn (first in line, Evil Frey) -> Walda, as Edwyn’s only child.

As I laid out here, there are some obstacles she has to overcome but it’s not impossible that all this hubbub is leading up to Walda being able to keep the Twins from her pushy, grasping male relatives - we have a LOT of female heiresses at the end of ADWD and I do think that’s leading to something in the endgame. BUT. Considering all the doom following the Freys around, she could very well be an innocent victim of LSH and her Red Wedding 2.0 plan - she is still, after all, in the riverlands as a Frey which is the most dangerous place for a Frey to be.

Once again, rip to the sweet little angels caught up in the game of thrones by their parents (shireen, tommen & myrcella, sweetrobin, fat walda, and possibly, poor sweet walda frey the first). I think her odds don't look great here but I also can't (and don't want to!) ignore that we will have a lot of female heiresses at the ending and she may very well be one of them.

Perra Frey - 4th in line for the Twins currently

Another of the Main Brance Royce Freys, her line goes-

Walder -> first born son Stevron (dead) -> first born son Ryman (dead) -> third born son Petyr Pimple (dead) -> Perra

Very similar story to Walda except she doesn't even get any real narrative focus (Edwyn does in fact mention his daughter, and we even see Walda on page - we don't see Perra at all). I very much think Perra is a Disposable Frey and likely to die or be passed over. I still wanted to count her though (justice for Doomed Babies!)

Vale Freys - 5th through 8th in line for the Twins

I'm grouping them all together. The Vale Freys line goes like this-

Walder -> first born son Stevron (dead) -> third born son Walton Waynwood Frey -> Steffon, Fair Walda, and Bryan Hardyng Frey

Now this isn't the first Vale family (and Waynwood specifically) to marry into the Freys; Anya Waynwood knows how to matchmake for her house! But I refer to them as the "Vale Freys" specifically because they have two Vale women that marry into their line - Marsella Waynwood and Deanna Hardyng. Remember Anya raised Harry the Heir and Jocelyn Stark's daughters married a Waynwood. This Waynwood/Hardyng connection could mean nothing and I fully acknowledge that. However, the number of Vale ties with this line and the fact that Sansa is dealing with Waynwoods and Hardyngs right now does make me wonder if the ultimate Lord of the Crossing could come from this seemingly Disposable Frey line.

Mad Huntsman/Aegon Bloodborn Frey - 17th-ish in the line of succession currently

Aegon “the Bloodborn” Frey is around 17th in line (but isn’t really in line, because he’s an outlaw). He hasn’t been seen in the books, only listed in the appendices. He is of the Royce-Wylde Freys so his line goes like so-

Walder -> third born son Aenys Frey (dead as of TWOW) -> first born son Aegon Bloodborn

Yes, his brother is Rhaegar Frey of “Frey Pies” fame. He’s not otherwise noteworthy ie we have no idea why he’s called “the bloodborn.” HOWEVER. There is the mad huntsman theory that if true could push him to the front of the “who gets the twins” race, narratively.

if you’re not familiar with the mad huntsman theory (no shame, i completely memory holed that one until recently too) it’s the idea that the Mad Huntsman, one of the brotherhood without banners who is described as being a big strong man with a “weak chin” who joins after his wife and sister are raped by Lannister soldiers. he tries to alleviate the starvation around the Stoney Sept by bringing in sheep from far away with his hounds later on. He’s also described as “quarrelsome” which fits with being a son of Aenys, who is also described as cruel, with a weak chin (in fact the term “weak chin” is used quite frequently to describe Frey men!). We also know Aegon Bloodborn is an outlaw and therefore doesn’t live at the Twins. Once LSH (noted Frey hater) takes over the BWB, it’s notable that the Mad Huntsman is no longer traveling with the main group. The biggest hole here imo is that the Mad Huntsman has a sister and afaik not only does Aenys only have two sons (Rhaegar and Aegon), but there’s not a mysteriously missing or disowned Frey daughter he could have run off with. It COULD be a sister by law, however.

If he IS working with the brotherhood, and leaves specifically bc of lady stoneheart, that means he’s safely away from All Of That, AND he’s one of the highest in the line of succession (i mean, before being disowned for being an outlaw, but if he is known to have worked with the brotherhood, i do imagine in the endgame he’d be pardoned). Especially considering having that crazy “Aegon the Bloodborn Frey” name, that feels like a SET UP altho tbf the set up could be something completely different from “Aegon Frey inherits the Twins.” Being a grown man, a fighter, and potentially married Does also help just from a logistical standpoint - if someone decides to question his claim, well, he’s more than capable of hitting back.

Alesander Frey - 31st ish in line of succession

Alesander is a Braavosi Frey (so we're finally at point 3 in my family tree there), which are a subgroup of the Crakehall Freys. It goes-

Walder & 3rd wife Amarei Crakehall -> third born son Symond -> first born son Alesander

Yes, Symond, his father, was in a Frey Pie. But Alesander is still A Good Frey! Alesander is my favorite Frey because he is a singer and it’s his absence from the Red Wedding that alerts Cat to something being a off. Ryman just says he’s ��away” and I find it interesting that even though he has no real relationship with the Starks (and therefore no emotional reasons to speak out against the Red Wedding, the way the Rosby Freys do), he does still speak out against it, likely for moral reasons. Speaks to a good sense of character that he’s willing to stand up to his family when literally dozens of his relatives are in on this plan.

HOWEVER. It’s not, as far as I’m aware, a BIG theory, but it IS one I’ve kicked around and I've seen a few others kick around that Alesander might be dead - you see, Arya cleans a dead body in the House of Black and White that is a mystery to us. I want to add the quote here-

One man had died at the feet of the Stranger, a single candle flickering above him. […] Before summoning the serving men to carry him away, she knelt and felt his face, tracing the line of his jaw, brushing her fingers across his cheeks and nose, touching his hair. Curly hair, and thick. A handsome face, unlined. He was young. She wondered what had brought him here to seek the gift of death. Dying bravos oft found their way to the House of Black and White, to hasten their ends, but this man had no wounds that she could find. The second body was that of an old woman. […] The corpses were laid out in the vault. The blind girl went to work in the dark, stripping the dead of boots and clothes and other possessions, emptying their purses and counting out their coins. […] On the handsome man she found four golden dragons out of Westeros. She was running the ball of her thumb across the most worn of them, trying to decide which king it showed, when she heard the door opening softly behind her.

It stood out to me because

arya notes most people don’t pray to westerosi gods in braavos but these two die at the foot of the Stranger

there’s a young man and an old woman, and we know alessander's mother is braavosi, betharios, so it could be his mother. the man is so noted to be a younger man, and that would match alessander's age as well

the man has four gold dragons on him - not a small amount of money, and westerosi money at that!

in my opinion here, if the face is being hidden from us through arya not knowing who it is, it will be plot relevant later. it’s only alesander who feels plot relevant and could also be in braavos at this time. it could be interesting if arya lands in the riverlands wearing the face of a stark friendly frey, or perhaps not wearing the face herself but recognizing parts of it in others and letting people know of alesander's fate.

why would they be here, likely having killed themselves? well...this is post red wedding, and alesander was specifically left out of the red wedding plot because they knew he'd have a moral argument against it, and symond seems to have been particularly involved in the red wedding plot. i think it could be interesting if they ehard of what their family did and committed suicide out of fear and shame.

anyways i hope alesander is alive because i think the set up for him is interesting and i want it to stay interesting and not tragic, hah.

Ami Darry Frey or Gatehouse Ami - 35th ish in line of succession

Another member of the Crakehall Frey Branch and someone we've actually met on page! Amerei or Gatehouse Ami's line goes-

Walder & 3rd wife Amarei Crakehall -> fifth born son Merrett (rest in piss) & Dariya Darry -> Ami

When we meet her through Jaime’s POV, she is engaged to Lancel Lannister so that the Lannisters can claim the Darry lands. Despite her engagement, Ami has a….reputation. She sleeps around a lot, and Lancel is not interested in her at all. She’s kind of wild, Jaime in general seems to find all the Darry Freys pretty unclassy, and I kind of love the idea that the Twins go from the completely classless Late Lord Walder to the equally but differently classless Gatehouse Ami. Let Ami Fuck Her Way Through The Riverlands!!!!

Walda Frey Bolton or Fat Walda - 36th ish in line of succession

Also known as Fat Walda, she is not only the same line as Ami but they are sisters! She’s a year to two years younger than Ami!

And listen, I love her but she’s doomed 😭 i hope ramsay suffers immensely for this one tho 😭😭😭😭

Perwyn Rosby Frey - 60th in line

Perwyn is the oldest member of the Rosby Frey branch (point five above!) His line goes-

Walder & 6th wife Bethany Rosy -> Perwyn.

He is one of the more obvious Good Freys; he is often placed in trusted positions such as guarding Catelyn, he is well liked by Daven Lannister, and seems to be close to his sister Roslin, perhaps even rooting for the Tullys to win out over the Lannisters. We get this line here:

Roslin's a pretty little thing, hardly stoatish at all. And fond of Edmure, queerly. Perwyn tells me [Roslin is] praying for a girl.

I really worry about Perwyn dying tho. Between Olyvar in Rosby, Roslin in Riverrun, and potentially Aegon in the BWB/eventually the Twins, I feel like Perwyn……..might be a death meant to hurt our feelings!

Olyvar Rosby Frey - 63rd ish in line

Younger brother of Perwyn, so also a Rosby Frey, something that is very important to Olyvar's story!

Despite being the most obvious Good Frey (he has to be dragged away from Robb’s side after Robb marries Jeyne), he’s not getting the Twins in my opinion, he’s getting Rosby’s holdings bc he’s Rosby’s ward - here's a good write up here. The gist of the "Olyvar is the Rosby Ward" theory is that the Rosby lands are currently up for grabs because Gyles Rosby died without a clear heir. It seems likely he wanted his lands to go to his unnamed ward but in AFFC, Cersei plans to seize them and give them to an ally. She runs into a brick wall here, as does Kevan before he dies, because the Rosby ward does not seem willing to play ball, even refusing to offer hospitiality to the Stokeworths. I think the fact that the Rosby ward seems determined to be a nuisance is the biggest indicator of this being Olyvar; he’s pissed off about Robb, and he’s showing it by refusing hospitality to any Lannister supporters. However, this could very well be set up for Olyvar inheriting a larger seat! Hard to say at this point!

Roslin Rosby Frey Tully - 82nd in line

She of many last names lmao. Another Rosby Frey (Bethany did something right as a mother i guess!!) who has recently married the heir to Riverrun, Edmure Tully.

She technically counts but I think her, Edmure, and their baby will eventually be safe in Riverrun. I’m aware this could be wishful thinking on my part but regardless, I’m not sure how likely it is that she and her baby inherits the Twins when they’re so wrapped up in the Riverrun story AND they're female line. It WOULD be funny though, if after all of Walder’s scheming and nonsense towards the Tullys, that the Twins is taken over by a cadet Tully branch of Roslin and Edmure's first born daughter.

Big Walder Frey - 54th in line

Now we get one (1) Bad Frey in our budding serial killer and kinslayer, Big Walder. He is from point 4, the Blackwood Freys. His line goes-

Walder & Alyssa Blackwood -> second son Jammos & Sallei Page -> first born son Big Walder.

I've always been fascinated by Big Walder and not just because of him murdering his cousin, Little Walder. I kind of love that he has his own coat of arms where he quarters the Frey's sigil with the houses of his grandmother and his mother. *Arya Voice* the woman is important too!

Big Walder, despite being a very minor character, does have a decent amount of narrative focus. He's appeared in four of the five books, being present at the Twins and sent to foster at Winterfell in AGOT, becoming a nuisance to Bran throughout ACOK, signing his name to Ramsay's false report that Theon burnt Winterfell in ASOS, and finally coming out with blood spattered clothing just after Little Walder is mysteriously murdered in ADWD. I think of all the Evil Freys, Big Walder seems the most "set up" as a potential inheritor of the Twins.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Thoughts? Potential contenders you think I've missed? In my opinion, I think Olyvar, Perwyn, Aegon, and Big Walder are probably the most likely inheritors although I would love if it was Roslin and Edmure's daughter or Gatehouse Ami.

[kingsansa]

that ask omg. I don't think anyone /gets/ modern AUs like you do.

Now I'm suddenly interested in the Theon × Myranda pairing 😭 is that even a thing?

Also how did I not remember one of Arianne's possible suitors was Edmure ... like. The possibilities. Everyone is so interconnected and people don't make much use of this in modern AUs (understandable because they're usually not all related in modern AUs) but this could bring about so many fun dynamics. Arianne, Quentyn and the Sand Snakes being Jon's half-siblings' cousins .. huge. Like how Sam is related to Selyse Florent and (haven't actually checked but I think I remember him also being related to) Margaery. Shireen's cousins not actually being Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen but Gendry, Edric, and Mya (and like thirteen others). Jorah's ex wife Lynesse being Margaery's aunt. Waymar Royce being Myranda's [second?]-cousin. The Waynwoods most likely being distant Stark relatives, etc etc.

The show has ended and the books are over but there's so mug material for fics, it's crazy. I love that this fandom is still so active 5+ years later.

I feel so seen!

I headcanon Theon and Myranda more as partners in crime than anything else. Like a once upon a time they might have had something once but then they realized that they were better off as friends and became each others wingman. When Theon introduces her to Patrek Mallister >>>

I don’t see the sand snakes and co being the most welcoming to him, with the exception of Arianne, and I think while Aegon and Rhaenys spend holidays with their mom (you better believe that joint custody agreement is ironclad) Jon and Dany end up getting shuttled to the Baratheon’s vacation home, where there’s no shortage of beach, cousins, baby moms, and nannies running after children around the house screaming “PUT THAT DOWN NOW.”

Selyse and Sam’s mom are first cousins, which makes Sam and Shireen first cousins! Margaery’s maternal grandfather married Sam’s aunt, so they are sort of related! Jorah’s ex wife being Alerie’s younger sister is hilarious to me and I have no idea why. You know she’s showing up to every holiday party in a fur coaf reminding Margaery to marry rich. I’ve also decided that she’s best friends with Cersei because why not? There’s so much stuff to play with and that’s what makes writing about it so much fun!

[horizon-verizon]

Userhttps://www.tumblr.com/witheredoffherwitch/747550490833928192/as-i-continue-to-spend-more-time-in-this-fandom-i?source=share

"Her descendants exclusively blame her for the extinction of their dragons - and not a single descendant carried her name thereafter. Her surviving lineage brands her as a traitor and that same line went extinct mainly because of the Dance."

This is a lie, right? Only Stannis recognizes Rhaenyra as a traitor, and Arianne recognizes her as the true heir. It's not known what her other descendants think about her or the Dance and succession. There isn't a single quote where they exclusively blame her for the extinction of the dragons."

Stannis Baratheon

Stannis--who is trying to make claim for the throne through male primogeniture himself and is a rigidly unlikeable guy besides...like this is what he's known for, being intolerable to be around--from what I researched is the only one to be so vitriolic towards Rhaenyra in a way that this user you're linking me to is making her legacy and the cultural feelings are towards her. It serves him to brand her as a "traitor" specifically because he's trying to invalidate the Lannister-Baratheons that are on the throne; to default to the traditions of having any trueborn male come before trueborn girls gives his claim credence. btw, he also names his daughter his heir and he will never have a boy. We can say that he could still set aside his wife but he hasn't bc he needs/needed her family and no family has come forward to offer him any of their daughters at the right time, so...he delulu. And not the fun kind, the really sad and annoying kind. Even if he did have a son, he still used his daughter to "warm up" the spot and try to get others to support him--similar to Viserys naming Rhaenyra (except he had the decency to be serious abt it) just so he can make use of potential allies. Rhaenyra needed heirs to solidify her claim? So did Stannis, and he used Shireen.

Thereby, with that and his disbelief in any religion but continued use of Melisandre to scare people, he's much more dishonest with himself about what is the "right" thing to do. And we already know that in Winds of Winter, he will burn his own daughter. So let's not take the words of the only descendant we definitely know calls Rhaenyra a "traitor", yeah? Typical hypocritical extreme nihilism. Total opposite of Dany, who locks away her own "children" to preserve the lives of others' children and contemplates family betrayal as negative in relation to power-grasping [down below].

Oh, and Robert, his brother and the person of whom he's saying he is the true heir to? Robert made use of their shared Targaryen mother--Rhaelle--to add more legitimacy to his reign. Thus to Stannis' potential reign as well.

Other mentions of Rhaenyra both in the main series and in the Hegde Knight series (so PoVs, not written histories) are:

None blame her for the extinction of dragons specifically; they mostly mention the how the "rift" or rivalry between "sister" and "brother" tore the realm part and plunged it into a devastating war. That's more the OG poster projecting their ideas onto those people outside of the Citadel.

And this is really emphasized by how Dany remember her own brother (abusive and once said he'd tear her own son from her womb, hah!) relating the tale of how Rhaenyra's son had forced his dragon into eating Rhaenyra right in front of her son (in contemplation of the "price of power" when she learns that a young girl is killed by presumably dragonfire, by one of her own dragons, the source of her ability to rise to power and protect those she wants to protect).

So here's the thing about Fire & Blood and even A World of Ice and Fire...both are books written by people who have not witnessed most of the things they write about AND are doing their best to BOTH record historical events AND push out propaganda or propaganda-like material to maintain a certain status quo. For Gyldayn, it is anti-female rulership/women in higher positions of power and with similar or close-to-traditionally-male-assigned positions.

Fire and Blood

Not only is Gyldayn already a man who has lived within the re-affirmed stigma against female leadership the Dance left Westeros in its wake, Gyldayn is trying to tell us how a woman, at all, being the heir to the throne of Westeros was itself catastrophic, and is using the war to affirm that idea. Meanwhile, when we really look at the whole of Westerosi history we realize two things:

much more women been used up, tortured, killed, etc. by men in any sort of position of power than those have been actually used their power for evil and selfish destruction once they had it or were close to it THAN IN THE REVERSE---ancillary as a Consort or the "highest"/central: Queen Alyssa, Queen Alysanne, Aerea & Rhaella's isolation and removal from the line of succession, Ceryse Hightower, Alys Harroway, most of Aegon IV's mistresses and certainly his sister wife Naerys, Daena, Elena, and their sister Rhaena, Argella Durrandon, Cassella Staunton, Shiera Blackwood, Rhaena the rider of Dreamfyre, Helaena, Jaehaera, Jeyne Arryn, Mysaria, Cassandra Baratheon, Saera, Viserra, Daella, *Princess Alyssa, Myrielle Peake, Lucinda Penrose, Jeyne Westerling, Elinor Costayne, that unnamed Lannister woman who married the man who would inherit her family's lands after taking her family name, Marla Sunderland, etc. Truly, the system already takes care of women who either just want a little bit more protection and agency or are ambitious or just want to protect their ancestral lands. (Except in Dorne, even though you can make the case of nonDornish people inflicting cultural violence against Princess Meria Martell's legacy by calling her a "toad" and saying she was a witch, but that doesn't affect the Martell women as much as nonDornish women...unless they are lowborn--Sylvenna Sand & Obara's mother).

even in his own telling of the Dance, him being a maester (the Hightowers have funded the Citadel for years and socially benefit from doing so by reputation of being pillars of the Faith), he fails to obscure just how greedy, traitorous, and destructive the green/green supporting males were...more so than most of the women he's recounting---INCLUDING Aegon, who was told to have been convinced of becoming king only to avoid Rhaenrya's wrath...which was quickly disproved by her explicitly stating that she wouldn't hurt him if he just gave up...and he responded by saying that he'd kill or seriously injure her...which he eventually did, as well as traumatize/nearly mutilate her 10 year old son as a deterrent to her many supporters

If there are descendants blaming her, they are mainly men AND they tend to be cruel, foolish, or otherwise men who should themselves never rule over a group of people for hos irresponsible they take to power. Fire and Blood rather shows us what happens when you let misogyny rule the world; it's liable to burn with how degrading you keep your women, esp those who already have dragons that you can entrust power rather than stifle and oppress. "Rhaenyra" is not a name used again for two reasons, one Doylist and the other Watsonian:

Doylist: she is mean to be a sort of "marker" between two periods of Targ history: no dragons vs the dragons...as the "peak" of the ruling Targs, when they were at their most powerful. not because she herself was so special or unique, but because of her position in the timeline

Watsonian: again, she is blamed, sexistly, for the Dance even though it was the greens who usurped her, etc....the council that convened after the Dance were full of men who didn't learn the real lesson and decided, esp after Baela's actions, to not place a woman on the throne bc "it causes too much trouble"...so the name itself is probably "cursed" in the sens that no Targ wanted to bring disfavor to themselves like how Aerion named one of his kids "Maegor"

It's a case of a man almost getting the real point, and skipping right over it. That person you link? They also missed the point entirely.

And yes, Arianne, one of her blood descendants, attributes her as the true queen...which she was. But remember, it's not so much that Rhaenyra wasn't the "true" heir, but that having a female ruler "causes chaos" so we shouldn't do it anymore.

AWoIaF

On the other hand, Yandel (AWoIaF) has several subtle exotifications & interpretations of foreign people's that come from Westerosi-Andal distaste for magic and suspicions of non-Faith practitioners. But more importantly, he was writing the book in dedication to first Robert, then Joffrey, and then Tommen and to the new Lannister-Baratheon alliance/dynasty that replaced the past Targaryen one, which had ended with a mad man but for the most part had non-mad people. The book really capitalizes on the Targaryens' boldness and possible link to power and mystery to paint the Baratheon-Lannisters as the best for Westeros, as the most righteous set of people to rule...(*cough, cough).

And you can see it when he's describing Robert's role in the Rebellion, the Lannisters, Tywin in particular, and how he characterizes the rebellion:

[selfproclaimedunicorn]

(@queen--kenobi)

👗 + Ella. Dealer's choice of scene!

It took a minute, but I decided to go with what Ella wears at Yorick’s wedding! Kind of an older collage that I already had made, so it has notes on it with all the alterations. And then I'm also including her hairstyle, & the clip that replaces the one in the picture (except instead of silver its bronze)

It's not her fanciest & most ornate outfit, but its nice & she's not outshining Yorick or Shireen. And maybe there's a brocade or damask pattern on the dress in tandem with the fancy embroidered trim? Idk, this dress is definitely one I plan on drawing at some point & some of the details will need to be felt out in the moment, y'know?

[jackoshadows]

The Second Battle at Long Lake.

So it's been my theory for a while that there will be a Battle of the Bastards between Jon Snow Vs Ramsay Bolton in the books, just better written than the TV show. As with all such things, IMO, Benioff and Weiss just took outlines, added their own changes and gave us a badly mutilated and mangled plot that has no resemblance to what is happening in the books.

I also believe that Jon Snow and Rickon Stark are the two Stark siblings who unite first and combine forces against the Boltons. What forces, where and how?

So I came across this interesting and well researched theory which proposes that this battle will happen at Long Lake, except they think Manderly and his forces will ride in from the south at the very end - like the Vale army on the show - and rescue Jon and his army of Freefolk. I disagree there because the weather at the end of ADwD/start of TWoW/current timeline has made it almost impossible for a large host to suddenly appear from the south and surprise two fighting armies. And as we see in Melisandre I, ADwD, Long Lake has just started to freeze.

Some folks have also theorized in the comments for this particular speculation that this is why Stannis will burn Shireen - for the weather (Like on the show). Again, IMO it's doubtful that Stannis is involved in this battle between the Starks and the Boltons. I really do feel like it will be the Starks (Jon/Rickon) who will win back Winterfell and not Stannis.

My theory is that Manderly's large host is already at Last Hearth, battle ready, and that House Manderly and House Umber have been colluding on this for a while, from as far back as ACoK.

So how do Rickon Stark and Jon Snow get to Long Lake?

Rickon Stark.

So according to the recently leaked 2003/2004 outline for AFfC, it's clear that both Davos and Rickon's story changed significantly from what it originally was. Davos stayed with Stannis, probably meets Jon Snow at the Wall and is involved in fArya's rescue from Winterfell.

I speculate that in this version the Manderlys already have Rickon Stark. He and Osha were last headed towards White Harbor because Maester Luwin asks them to seek help there and there's some discrepancies in Wex's story. At some point this changed and GRRM introduced frigging unicorns into the picture, sending Rickon to Skagos - this whole new place with a new culture and needing new worldbuilding from where Davos has to go and get Rickon back. IMO, this was an unnecessary side diversion that keeps the story ballooning without an end but, oh well, this is how GRRM writes and why he is unable to finish the story now.

So Rickon is now in Skagos. I think Davos I and II in TWoW will be in Skagos and by Davos III they are back in Westeros in Karhold. We will see through a Davos POV how Sigorn and Alys Karstark meet her people in Karhold and everything is settled there. Alys Karstark will fully support a son of Ned Stark in Rickon Stark, the legal heir, and of course he has his direwolf, Shaggydog which confirms his identity.

From there I am theorizing that Davos, Rickon, Osha, some Skagosi supporting and traveling with Rickon and Thenn warriors representing house Karstark will travel to Last hearth, where there will already be assembled a large Manderly host.

[Note: With the traitor Karstarks detained by Stannis, we would be seeing a total reversal of the show with the Umbers and Karstarks fighting for Rickon Stark against Ramsay Bolton. ]

Now why Last Hearth?

In Jon Snow's conversation with Stannis we find out that no one knows who is in charge of Last Hearth or what is happening there.

It has already been theorized plenty that the Northern houses are playing the long game and have been doing so for a while. In the same vein I think the Umbers and Manderlys have been planning and plotting for a while.

First we know that Manderly has been tasked with building the defenses of White Harbor, which include fortifying their navy, right from AGoT when Ned wanted to prepare for an attack from the South.

"Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. - Ned, AGoT

While Bran is ruling the North as Prince of Winterfell, Manderly offers to build Robb Stark a strong navy that can take Dragonstone and King's Landing if he had enough gold. At the same time the Umber brothers Hothor and Crowfood want ships to fight back the Wildling raiders from Eastwatch. Ser Rodrik asks both houses to work together to build these ships.

In addition to a mint, Lord Manderly also proposed to build Robb a warfleet. "We have had no strength at sea for hundreds of years, since Brandon the Burner put the torch to his father's ships. Grant me the gold and within the year I will float you sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King's Landing both." - Bran, ACoK

Note also that Manderly wants to build galleys, not longships. These are ships that can carry armies and heavy horses.

Hother wanted ships. "There's wildlings stealing down from the north, more than I've ever seen before. They cross the Bay of Seals in little boats and wash up on our shores. The crows in Eastwatch are too few to stop them, and they go to ground quick as weasels. It's longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes." Ser Rodrik pulled at his whiskers. "You have forests of tall pine and old oak. Lord Manderly has shipwrights and sailors in plenty. Together you ought to be able to float enough longships to guard both your coasts." "Manderly?" Mors Umber snorted. "That great waddling sack of suet? His own people mock him as Lord Lamprey, I've heard. The man can scarce walk. If you stuck a sword in his belly, ten thousand eels would wriggle out." "He is fat," Ser Rodrik admitted, "but he is not stupid. You will work with him, or the king will know the reason why." And to Bran's astonishment, the truculent Umbers agreed to do as he commanded, though not without grumbling. - Bran, ACoK

We see the conclusion of this in ADwD with Davos in White Harbor, where he notices the warships. Yes, Manderly has not been idle and he has been building a lot of ships most probably with all the pine and oak he has been send by the Umbers.

That jetty wall conceals the inner harbor, he realized, as the Merry Midwife was pulling down her sail. The outer harbor was larger, but the inner harbor offered better anchorage, sheltered by the city wall on one side and the looming mass of the Wolf's Den on another, and now by the jetty wall as well. At Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, Cotter Pyke told Davos that Lord Wyman was building war galleys. There could have been a score of ships concealed behind those walls, waiting only a command to put to sea. - Davos II, ADwD

From here he could see down into the harbors. Both of them. Behind the jetty wall, the inner harbor was crowded with war galleys. Davos counted twenty-three. Lord Wyman was a fat man, but not an idle one, it seemed. - Davos II, ADwD

The dockside wharves were swarming. A clutter of small boats were tied up along the fish market, off-loading their catches. He saw three river runners too, long lean boats built tough to brave the swift currents and rocky shoots of the White Knife. It was the seagoing vessels that interested him most, however; a pair of carracks as drab and tattered as the Merry Midwife, the trading galley Storm Dancer, the cogs Brave Magister and Horn of Plenty, a galleas from Braavos marked by her purple hull and sails …- Davos II, ADwD

[Note: A Galleass is a warship that combined the sails and armament of a galleon with the maneuverability of the oared galley. Tycho Nestoris also visits the Wall with a Galley, Galleass and cog that Jon ends up borrowing for Hardhome.]

As many ships as Davos sees in the harbor, Manderly tells him there's more hidden in the White Knife. This tells me that the warships with the men and heavy horses have already departed on the White Knife and towards Long Lake.

“I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife. Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck. My walls are strong, and my vaults are full of silver. Oldcastle and Widow's Watch will take their lead from me. My bannermen include a dozen petty lords and a hundred landed knights. I can deliver King Stannis the allegiance of all the lands east of the White Knife, from Widow's Watch and Ramsgate to the Sheepshead Hills and the headwaters of the Broken Branch. All this I pledge to do if you will meet my price.” - Davos, ADwD

Keep in mind the timeline. When Davos is at White Harbor, boats and river runners are still moving up and down the White Knife.

That was worse. And now the Bastard of Bolton was riding south with Hother Umber to join them for an attack on Moat Cailin. "The Whoresbane his own self," claimed a riverman who'd just brought a load of hides and timber down the White Knife, "with three hundred spearmen and a hundred archers. Some Hornwood men have joined them, and Cerwyns too." That was worst of all. - Davos, ADwD

A couple of months later, Melisandre sees the beginning of the water turning to ice.

"I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever." "Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?" - Melisandre, ADwD

Considering Manderly has already started moving men, machines and heavy horses long before even Davos gets there, I think it's safe to say that the host has assembled at Last Hearth before Long Lake and consequenctly White Knife froze over.

In ACoK, Theon speaks of Manderly sending siege machines up river. And yet we never see this? Where have these siege machines disappeared?

She knows more than I do, Theon realized. That only made him angrier. "The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls and join Ser Rodrik. And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I'll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?" - Theon V, ACoK

And yet in Theon VI,

Theon studied there banners through Maester Luwin’s Myrish lens tube. The Cerwyn battle-axe flapped bravely wherever he looked, and there were Talhart trees as well, and mermen from White Harbor. Less common were the sigils of Flint and Karstark. Here and there he even saw the bull moose of the Hornwoods. But no Glovers, Asha saw to them, no Bolton’s from the Dreadfort, no Umbers come down from the shadow of the wall. They’d brought catapults and scorpions. He saw no siege engines rumbling up the kingsroad - Theon VI, ACoK

Where are all those Manderly knights, warhorses, siege engines and the Umber army? Even now Manderly beats the Boltons in terms of wealth and men, which is why Roose is so nervous about him in particular. Manderly's knights use plate armor while Bolton's use chain mail. As Manderly tells Davos he can get the men from all the nearby regions. With Ned's instruction to house Manderly to fortify White Harbor, it's a certainty that Manderly held back in the 2000 men he send Robb and now has around 7000 men.

We also know that the Cerwyns are staunchly loyal to the Starks, their house being on the Western branch of the White Knife.

"Night work is not knight's work," Lady Dustin said. "And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf." - The Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD

If there is anyone who can help with the movement of armies and siege machines across the White Knife it is the Cerwyns.

Both Manderly and Whoresbane Umber are also currently in Winterfell attending the marriage of Ramsay and Arya and the celebration feast. We see Lords like Stout talking quietly to Umber and Roose knows that Manderly is clever and possibly plotting against him and that the Umbers are cunning.

The castle was too crowded to withstand a long siege, and too many of the lords here were of uncertain loyalty. Fat Wyman Manderly, Whoresbane Umber, the men of House Hornwood and House Tallhart, the Lockes and Flints and Ryswells, all of them were northmen, sworn to House Stark for generations beyond count. It was the girl who held them here, Lord Eddard's blood, but the girl was just a mummer's ploy, a lamb in a direwolf's skin. So why not send the northmen forth to battle Stannis before the farce unraveled? Slaughter in the snow. And every man who falls is one less foe for the Dreadfort. - Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD

On the dais, Lord Wyman Manderly sat between a pair of his White Harbor knights, spooning porridge into his fat face. He did not seem to be enjoying it near as much as he had the pork pies at the wedding. Elsewhere one-armed Harwood Stout talked quietly with the cadaverous Whoresbane Umber. - The Turncloak, ADwD

"He should be. Fear is what keeps a man alive in this world of treachery and deceit. Even here in Barrowton the crows are circling, waiting to feast upon our flesh. The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my fat friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal, and Whoresbane … the Umbers may seem simple, but they are not without a certain low cunning. Ramsay should fear them all, as I do. The next time you see him, tell him that." - Reek, ADwD

Look at that foreshadowing from Roose Bolton, who is quite cunning and strategic himself. He specifically mentions Manderly and Umber as houses Ramsay should fear. I believe he is correct as these two houses will be Ramsay's doom. They have already assembled a huge host at Last Hearth and are just waiting for Rickon Stark to get there, for them to rally behind the Stark sigil and the son of Ned Stark to take on the Boltons. Again, considering the timeline and Davos being behind the Wall POV by a couple of months, I think Rickon will be at Last Hearth in time for the next participant to get there.

And who is the next participant?

Jon Snow

The theory post I linked to at the start has already laid out pretty clearly the link between the previous battle at Long Lake and the possible new one. This is how GRRM writes and he loves a replaying of historical asoiaf events but with a new twist. We had a Dance of Dragons previously and we will get a new Dance of Dragons. The Wildfire was a threat previously? The Wildfire will be a threat again with Cersei Lannister possibly mirroring the Mad King. Bael the Bard stealing a Stark Maiden successfully to Abel the Bard getting caught attempting to do the same.

Now the Battle at Long Lake is only mentioned in the Jon Snow POV chapters - another clue - and is a cautionary tale about Sleepy Jack, the Lord Commander who is taken by surprise when Wildlings cross over and attack south of the Wall. It takes the Starks in Winterfell, Willam and his younger brother Artos, and Harmond Umber to fight back and repel the Wildling attack, defeat and kill Raymun Redbeard - the last legitimate threat from the Freefolk before Mance Raydar assembled his host.

That was how Raymun Redbeard had done it, Raymun who had been King-Beyond-the-Wall in the days of his grandfather's grandfather. Jack Musgood had been the lord commander in those days. Jolly Jack, he was called before Redbeard came down upon the north; Sleepy Jack, forever after. Raymun's host had met a bloody end on the shores of Long Lake, caught between Lord Willam of Winterfell and the Drunken Giant, Harmond Umber. Redbeard had been slain by Artos the Implacable, Lord Willam's younger brother. The Watch arrived too late to fight the wildlings, but in time to bury them, the task that Artos Stark assigned them in his wroth as he grieved above the headless corpse of his fallen brother. Jon did not intend to be remembered as Sleepy Jon Snow. - Jon II, ADwD

Keep in mind that it's the Freefolk who are now gradually taking over and commanding several posts at the Wall and becoming part of the Night's Watch and the current warden of the North and Lord of Winterfell are the Boltons, not the Starks.

The castle Jon returned to was far different from the one he'd left that morning. For as long as he had known it, Castle Black had been a place of silence and shadows, where a meagre company of men in black moved like ghosts amongst the ruins of a fortress that had once housed ten times their numbers. All that had changed. Lights now shone through windows where Jon Snow had never seen lights shine before. Strange voices echoed down the yards, and free folk were coming and going along icy paths that had only known the black boots of crows for years. Outside the old Flint Barracks, he came across a dozen men pelting one another with snow. Playing, Jon thought in astonishment, grown men playing like children, throwing snowballs the way Bran and Arya once did, and Robb and me before them - Jon, ADwD

So the previous Battle at Long Lake involved the Freefolk under Redbeard Vs the Starks and Umbers. The new Battle at Long Lake in TWoW will involve the Stark come down from the Wall with his army of Freefolk Vs Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell.

Now, I am not tackling the how and in what form Jon Snow will be resurrected. I am just starting here on the assumption that he will be resurrected and eager to attack the bastard of Bolton and end the Bolton threat to the North once and for all.

I also speculate that the Night's Watch as we know it is over as of the last ADwD chapter with flagrant breaking of oaths and neutrality, assassination, mutiny, the large group of angry Freefolk and dwindling number of crows. It's possible Jon Snow hears that Arya has been send on to Braavos (Which is for the good!) and that Stannis has failed to capture Winterfell and the North (Which is bad!) and then decides to attack Ramsay Bolton at Long Lake. I am also not speculating here on how Stannis fails and where, how and why the whole burning his daughter Shireen happens. I just think that Stannis is done with by the time Jon and Rickon face Ramsay Bolton.

It's very possible that Stannis takes down Roose Bolton with him. Two smart tacticians who are big players in the game and for as big a secondary character Stannis is, he deserves to go out in a big way and I think taking down Roose will give him that. Which leaves Ramsay Bolton to the Starks.

This is where I bring in GRRM's notes when writing season 4 of the TV show.

Speaking of which: Martin leaves a little note for the producers when writing about Ramsay’s flesh-eating hounds, whom we see hunting down a girl for sport.

[N.B. A note for future reference. A season or two down the line Ramsay’s pack of wolfhounds are going to be sent against the Stark direwolves, so we should build up the dogs as much as possible in this and subsequent episodes.]

Note that he is talking 'Direwolves' - plural. Summer is too far North beyond the Wall and Nymeria is too far south in the Riverlands (Assuming here that they don't get to Long Lake in the ensuing three/four months) and so I am going to speculate this is Shaggydog and Ghost. The black and white direwolves belonging to the oldest and youngest Stark.

Now keeping mind the winter weather, there could be a scenario where we get Jon Vs Ramsay, the Freefolk are not winning and then the Manderly host from Last Hearth charges in under a Stark banner turning the tide and beating the Boltons? It's possible. Unlike the badly written nonsense we got on the show, as outlined above, GRRM has painstakingly build up the Manderlys and Umbers secretly getting this big host up North. Them seeing the battle and then stepping in to finish off the Boltons is very possible. Especially as there will be Skagosi with Rickon and the Thenns representing Karstark are already amongst them, making them not as averse to helping out an army of Freefolk. We start getting the integration of the Freefolk into the North and it starts with Umber acceptance of the Wildlings.

It's also possible that Jon Snow becomes aware of this large Manderly host at Last Hearth as he marches towards Long Lake and vice versa, they combine forces, there is no surprise rescue just an all out battle which ends with House Bolton defeated and done with and The Winds of Winter ends with the Starks back in Winterfell and Rickon Stark named Lord of Winterfell.

I have been long wondering where the Jon Vs Ramsay confrontation will happen and now (thanks to that reddit post) I think it will happen at Long Lake with support from the Manderly/Umber host at Last Hearth.

[bostonwalks]

Meet Ella Waweya, the IDF's top Muslim woman, speaking out to the Arab world - exclusive ‘Captain Ella’ tells the ‘Magazine’ about her work as IDF spokesperson to the Arab world. https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-809892

The walls of the office of Maj. Ella Waweya, 34, at the IDF spokesperson headquarters in northern Tel Aviv, are dotted with diplomas, certificates of merit, and family pictures, as well as beautiful Arabic calligraphy of the Quran, alongside a Druze flag, a cross, a small copy of the Zohar (Jewish mysticism book), and flags of participating Abraham Accords countries. 

“I don’t leave anyone behind,” she says, smiling.

Waweya has served in the army for 10 years. She hails from the Arab Israeli town of Kalansuwa, where all the citizens are Muslim Arabs. Her formal title is deputy spokesperson for the Arab world and head of the Arab communications department, working under IDF Arabic spokesperson Col. Avichai Adraee. 

“In my area at that time there were no soldiers in the IDF – certainly not female soldiers; though some did enlist in the police,” she says. She enlisted at the relatively late age of 24, after first securing a bachelor’s degree in communications and a master’s degree in government studies.

What led you to enlist?

It all started with a dilemma I felt regarding my identity. I was 12 during the Second Intifada, and the only channel we used to watch was Al Jazeera. Interestingly, Shireen Abu Akleh had just started her position, and we would see her and her aggressiveness while reporting.

I looked at her and said to myself: ‘I want to be a journalist, but not like her.’ My message would be different, coming not from a blindly Palestinian point of view but as part of my identity dilemma. People always wanted to define me, whether as an ‘Arab of ’48’ or an Israeli Arab. Everyone defined me differently – except for myself.

I had actually wanted to be a doctor, but by then I already wanted to be a journalist. I wanted to show ‘my side,’ even though at that time I didn’t know what it was exactly.

At age 16, I got my ID as is customary in Israel. It was blue. I realized that I am Israeli and thought to myself that if I am Israeli, I must do something about it. The state brought me this identity, and I was looking for ways to associate myself with being Israeli. There was no awareness back then, and the Internet was not very developed, so I couldn’t learn online. I had to wait with these feelings bubbling inside me.

Time passed, but the thoughts did not stop. When I started my bachelor’s degree, I decided to take part in National Service at the Meir Medical Center in Kfar Saba. During my time there, I remember playing chess with one of the security guards, a Bedouin, during a sleepy night shift. He suddenly asked me, ‘Why didn’t you go to the army?’ And I said. ‘I wanted to, but they wouldn’t want me because I’m an Arab woman.’ He connected me with Col. Yossi Haddad, who was the head of the Bedouin tracker unit, to whom I give credit for my enlistment.

When I finished my degree in 2012, I took part in a press conference in Eilat. There was a panel regarding recruitment of the haredim [ultra-Orthodox] headed by then-IDF spokesperson Polly Mordechai and esteemed journalist Roni Daniel. One ultra-Orthodox person stood up and started explaining why he and his society shouldn’t enlist in the army. 

I was 21 and asked to speak. I told that person: ‘Shame on you! As a Muslim Arab, I wish I could join the army!’ Suddenly everyone started clapping. I didn’t understand why, but at the end of the panel both Mordechai and Daniel turned to me, commending me for what I had said. Mordechai asked his secretary to take my details to help me enlist. From there, everything started to unfold.

Suddenly, phone calls began to come, and I was offered a post at the IDF Spokespersons Unit, at first as a non-officer commander. I was mainly happy to know that I would be a commander. In fact, I had no idea that there were so many functions in the IDF. I thought that there were only combatants and thought I’d enlist in Caracal [an all-female or mixed combat unit in the IDF].

This week, you celebrated 10 years in the IDF. How do you feel about it? 

It was the best decision I ever made. Enlisting was a personal decision; I didn’t consult anyone. The environment was not one that encouraged enlisting; I just decided one day to get up and get on that bus.

When someone asks me for advice about enlisting and lying about it to their parents, I stress that my story should not be understood as an encouragement to lie. But I do stress that they must know how to make these personal decisions and do what is right for them. 

In 2015, you received a mark of honor from the president. 

I was featured in the newspaper with a pixelated picture, reading something like ‘Cadet Ella from Kalansuwa, a trailblazer, serves in the IDF. Only her mother knows and she took it hard, but she is proud to serve...’ etc. This was false because nobody knew it back then. But then my parents saw the article and recognized the blurry photo. The fact that I was the only Ella from Kalansuwa also gave it away. Both my family and I began getting some unpleasant messages from people around us.

But we didn’t look back, we looked toward the future. I used to cry when I talked about it, but today I actually laugh because of all the changes we went through. Look at the difference between that picture and this one (she points at the newspaper clip and then at a photo on the other side of the room showing her mother, wearing a hijab, awarding Waweya her army ranks).

If you ask me to describe my mother with one word, I would say she’s a hero. She also went through a lot and suffered due to my decision to join the IDF. Today, my mother is ill with cancer, and when I get to the hospital, the doctors are always waiting to meet me because she tells them about me, and it makes me understand how proud she is of me. During the war, she told me to come to her chemotherapy appointment wearing my uniform. 

The same goes for my siblings, who are very proud of me and trust me, even with the smallest things. They think the fact that I’m a soldier means that I’m an expert in everything security related, so they ask me for tips about getting through the airport, for instance. They also ask me to lift heavy things when they need help, also because I’m a soldier. This means that the army has a good name, that people believe it is powerful.

In this time of war, what does your job entail?

I manage communications through the Middle East and Arabic department. I’m responsible for everything that happens in digital media and for interviews with the Arab media. We work a lot with Arab media outlets, and we strive to present the truth about Israel and the IDF. Our job is to speak for the IDF. If we don’t talk about what happened on Oct. 7, for instance, the Arab world will just not know anything about it. Arab media has a lot of influence on Arab public opinion, and they often see only one side. We work to present a different side and try to influence what happens at home. This is true even for my mother. When she watches Al-Hadath or al-Arabiya [Saudi channels], she also wants to see a person in uniform telling her our narrative. This makes the image more balanced.

How do you find working with the Arab media?

There are channels that serve as outright mouthpieces of Hamas, spewing the same lies of Hamas. Take Al Jazeera, for example. Just a few months ago, they outrageously lied about IDF soldiers allegedly raping Gazan women. We also work on monitoring, analyzing, and understanding what is being said in the media, and thus make our messages more precise and on topic. When Al Jazeera put forward such a lie, we responded forcefully, and even the former director of Al Jazeera had to tweet that Al Jazeera’s lie went too far. That’s our influence. 

I sometimes use irony and sarcasm while being interviewed. I was interviewed by a Russian Arabic-language outlet, Russia Al-Yawm. The presenter quoted a survey about how Gazans think that Hamas won, and I answered: ‘Of course they have won – in destroying the future of Gazans, the schools, the mosques, the hospitals. If this is victory, then Ahlan wa Sahlan. So you want to tell me that they have won? It will take them years to rebuild the infrastructure in Gaza. Here, things are re-blooming. Yes, they murdered and destroyed, but we can look back, learn our lessons, embrace each other, and move forward.’

I also explain that the real victory is that the war has managed to unite all of the citizens of Israel. You see how Christians, Bedouins, Muslims, and Jews all chip in, prepare food for soldiers, and help each other. Everyone here experiences the same pain. 

Another strategy that my team and I apply is the juxtaposition of Hamas leaders on the one hand, and the people of Gaza on the other. 

Only this week, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said to an Al-Arabiya presenter: ‘Have you ever heard anyone from Gaza complain about what is happening?’ And I say, ‘Wa hayat rabbak [“Oh, come on”] – just take a look at Gaza networks.’ We published Meshaal’s interview with authentic videos of Gazans who complain about the situation and Hamas. He doesn’t grasp what his people are going through because he is simply not there.

We try to reach the hearts of the masses by coming up with catchy messages. We came up with a rhyming slogan that says ‘The leaders are in bliss, but the people are in hell.’ We brand Hamas leaders as leading a ‘jihad of hotels.’

I saw a short clip of a law student from Gaza who said, ‘My dream is lost,’ and it truly touched me, precisely because I am a woman, an Arab, and an Israeli, who has learned the morality and values of the IDF. The first thing that we study in basic training is the IDF Code of Ethics document. 

So yes, I say that they are poor to have such bad leaders. The hadith [Islam’s oral traditions regarding the prophet Mohammad] says: ‘All of you are guardians, and all of you are responsible for your subjects.’ Hamas leadership is the exact opposite.

As a Muslim, do you use the Quran and Islamic traditions often in your content?

If I see fit to use a hadith, I will use it in our media and in interviews. One of the edicts of Muhammad before a war was not to kill a man, a woman, or an animal. When you see the videos of investigations of Hamas militants, and you see the father and son who admit that they both raped the same woman, is this what Islam says? Is this what the prophet says? Not at all. And shame on them. Such people are a shame to Islam. We call them najis [“impure”] in Arabic.

Regardless, I usually prefer to use my colloquial dialect of Arabic rather than speak in Modern Standard Arabic. I try to speak to the common people. Those Hamas terrorists are also common people, they understand my language. If needed, I can speak the Lebanese dialect or any other dialect. I want to talk to their hearts.

Avichai [Adraee] speaks as an official speaking to officials and enemies, he speaks to the mind. I try to speak more to the heart and more down to earth. I’m a simple person. I may be senior in rank, but that doesn’t mean much in this game.

I try to speak to people at their level. I feel them, and this is not just an empty slogan. I want to make them aware of what is happening, since they may be in a bubble and don’t see the whole picture. Let them come to my office and look at all these certificates. I want the girls in Gaza to be like me. May their life be full of certificates, excellence, success, education. I don’t want any person to have their dreams taken away from them as Hamas has done to this generation.

I have several videos where I appeal to Gazan women specifically. Mothers, sisters, daughters. I also sometimes direct my messages directly to the terrorists. I ask them: ‘What kind of man are you?’ Arab men have this image of ‘family honor.’ I tell them, ‘You kill, rape, and burn – and leave your mother and sister without a home. Where is your honor?’ When they try to harm us, they also inflict harm on their own homes and people.

Some would ask: Hamas does claim to speak in the name of Islam. Their name is short for the “Islamic Resistance Movement” in Arabic, after all.

When we said ‘Hamas is ISIS,’ that is exactly what we meant. ISIS is not Islam. By the way, it should be emphasized that Hamas is even worse than ISIS. Just look at what they are doing to their own people – they kill them, steal their food, take away their aid. If the residents only knew how much money went into Gaza and where it ended up. This is not Islam, this is simply pure political corruption.

If only Hamas cared about their people, Gaza would have become a paradise. They have beaches, hotels, villas – but all of this goes to Hamas, not to the common people. What came out of Oct. 7 in the end? Has [Hamas leader] Yahya Sinwar really thought ahead? If he really guessed that all this destruction would ensue and still kept on with his plan – his people should wake up and do something about it.

Islam will never tell you to kill and do what they did on Oct. 7. They hurt innocent people on Simchat Torah. The horror movie compiled by the IDF Spokespersons Unit shows two little children who ran to a bomb shelter with their father, who is killed by Hamas militants right in front of their eyes. The children return to the house, crying. One of them says ‘I can’t see anything!’ but the Hamas terrorist simply takes a Coca-Cola bottle from the fridge, sits down, and drinks it calmly. 

Another recording from the film shows a young terrorist calling his parents excitedly: ‘Yaba [“Daddy”], I killed 10 Jews with my bare hands!’ and his father answers him: ‘May Allah bless you!’ There are no words to describe this. This is certainly not the teaching of Islam.

How can you know that your messages come across to the other side?

The relocation of populations from war zones is the best example of proving that our messages are getting through. The army used all kinds of ways to motivate the population. At first, they [the Gazans] didn’t budge, but after we tweeted in Arabic showing maps of designated safe zones, people started moving. That’s how you know it works. On TikTok, we can also see that Gazans watch our content. That’s not to say that they support us, but they certainly know that Hamas is lying to them.

Sometimes there are follow-ups after we’re interviewed by the media. Even when our contents face harsh criticism, it still means that people were affected and that it got to them. I also don’t view criticism as negative but as something that teaches us along the way. We ask for feedback from people from all kinds of countries, those that have peace [agreements] with Israel and those that don’t. When I read about the discourse in the media and social networks, I understand how to address the target audience.

As I mentioned earlier, I complement Avichai; therefore, I must understand what interests young crowds. Do they want to hear me threaten Hamas leaders, or see me in the middle of an exercise with the Caracal unit? Or would they prefer to see me running with a battalion or see a female fighter arresting a Hamas terrorist? We build our strategy from these questions.

When the message is authentic, it works better. When it’s too edited or has too many cuts, it won’t work. We try to learn from our mistakes. We are now trying to build a brand of colors for my social media accounts, and I don’t know if the branding will work. But this is exactly what trial and error is all about.

What are the main characteristics of the media in this part of the world?

Take Al Jazeera. There are always delays in interviews with Israeli guests; that’s how they can control what is being said. This is done on purpose so that people don’t hear everything they have to say. Israelis are only brought on to claim that the TV channel are ‘neutral,’ but in fact it is clear that there is a bias.

In other places, there are some anchors who interrupt you constantly. I believe in conversation. If you have decided to host somebody, let them speak! Are you an anchor or a commentator? If you decide to interview someone who asks questions, ask what the audience wants to ask, not what’s in your gut and you want to get out.

In another context, frequently in Arab media, when viewers see a person in a uniform with medals, it automatically gives their words more authority. We are also a trusted source for many. We sometimes receive inquiries from journalists about issues not directly related to the army, but they contact us because they know we are trustworthy.

Take the story of the Al-Mamadani hospital. Hamas came out minutes later and lied that Israel killed 500 people. It took us about three hours to delve into the details and respond. This proves that we do not say anything before the incident is thoroughly investigated. There is pressure, the audience wants to understand more about what happened, but we can’t issue a statement without properly investigating. This is why they trust us in much of the Arab media and want to see us on their screens.

There are journalists from the Arab media whom I respect who come up with questions that the audience truly wants to ask. A hard question is not necessarily a hostile one. My mother at home also wants answers to difficult questions, and our place is to answer the difficult questions as well. 

When we’re asked about the casualties in the Gaza Strip – of course, there are unfortunate casualties when Hamas uses people to conceal themselves, hide weapons, and launch rockets. Give me one hospital in the US that has weapons hidden in there. In Gaza there is, and that’s the difference. So are schools, which have tunnels for terrorist purposes dug under them. Even in mosques. Since when are mosques a place for murder? Give me one Quranic verse or hadith that permits that. 

Do people recognize you in the streets?

It happens to me a lot that I just walk around, and people stop me and say that they know me. In Paris, a man from Algeria started an unpleasant conversation with me, but we ended it with a handshake and a selfie. I believe in conversation, not in shouting. I could have taken a flag out of my bag, turned on a camera to take pictures of myself, and shout. But that is not a conversation.

In September, I went to a Lebanese restaurant in New York (what can you do? – there is no real food to eat in the US), and in every Arab restaurant I went to, people recognized me. Even here on the street some people recognize me. It’s fun, but it also depends on when. Asking for a selfie while I’m in the middle of biting into my hamburger can be irritating at times [she laughs].

I also get contacted on social media, especially people from Gaza. They ask me, ‘I am in Khan Yunis; can I leave and go somewhere else?’ I never have enough time to answer everyone, but it’s important to answer whomever I can because at the end of the day, this is what social media is all about, and our goal is to have a conversation.

I happened to meet with Gazans in person, too, at the Erez crossing. Some came to receive medical treatment in Israel. At the end, they thanked us for the medical treatment. Some of them also spoke to me against Hamas. 

What would your message to our readers be?

I am a woman, an Arab, a Muslim, an Israeli, and an officer in the IDF. This truly shows the democracy of our country, of our culture here, that we can all be here together. The truth is never only one-sided. I say to everyone out there: ‘Come and visit Israel, no matter your language or religion. Come to our beautiful country for a few days and understand what is going on in Lebanon; understand why our war is just.’ 

Let them go and walk around in Judea and Samaria and see what happens if you say that you’re Jewish, and they’ll understand straight away how much we must fight to keep the Jewish people in the State of Israel safe.

I say this as a Muslim: We know how to live together, and that’s how it should be. We need to help each other and remain together. It’s especially fun to walk around Israel and hear all the languages and see the diversity. Israel is not only about a conflict between Arabs and Jews. Israel is fun. And even when there are frictions it’s because we are one family, as we saw in this war which reunited us.

This is the title of the State of Israel – a family. So, it’s no wonder that people call each other ‘brother’ in the streets.

Related Tags

[bobthebenevolentpirate]

From the article (emphasis added by me):

Mohammed Abu Sharkh, displaced from northern Gaza to the Deir al-Balah camp, told Al-Monitor, “Palestinians felt helpless about the way members of the US Congress treated Netanyahu during his recent speech and lost hope for a radical change in the United States' pro-Israel policy.”

Commenting on congressional members' clapping during Netanyahu’s 55-minute speech, Abu Sharkh, who holds a master’s degree in international relations, said, “For us, the applause sounded like bombs falling on the heads of Palestinian children.”

Still, when it comes to Gaza and the next US president, he has a preference: the current vice president.

“I think Harris will have a better vision for the Palestinians, especially with regard to human rights, such as increasing aid and Gaza’s reconstruction,” he said.

Abdul Rahim al-Hayek, displaced from Gaza City to the town of Qarara, in the south, shares Abu Sharkh’s pessimism about a possible change in US policy toward Palestinians and the war, regardless of who wins the election.

“I have lived through 14 US presidents, all of whom were blatantly pro-Israel, with the exception of President Bill Clinton, who visited Gaza in 1998 to push the peace process forward,” Hayek told Al-Monitor.

Hayek said he would like to see Harris victorious in November, adding, “I prefer anyone over Trump, who recognized our future capital, Jerusalem, as the capital of Israel.”

It has been the hope of Palestinians that East Jerusalem will be the capital of any future Palestinian state.

Palestinians readily recall the collective setbacks they experienced when Trump was president. During his time in office, he made a series of decisions considered a blow to the Palestinian cause.

Most notably, Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as the unified capital of Israel in December 2017 and moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May of the following year. In 2019 he overturned decades of US policy and declared that Israeli settlements on the West Bank were not illegal.

Trump also suspended US aid to the UN Relief and Works Agency, which assists Palestinian refugees, and the Palestinian Authority (PA). In addition, he closed the Washington, DC, headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the internationally recognized representatives of the Palestinian people.

Shireen Zaiter, a government employee displaced from Gaza City to Deir al-Balah, told Al-Monitor, “Harris seems to sympathize more with us Palestinians, and I believe that once in the White House, she will exert pressure to end the Israeli war on us.”

As for the current Israeli prime minister, she remarked, “His position is against Harris’ political positions.” She also said that Netanyahu is not telling the truth about wanting to end the war and wants to impose a new military occupation on Gaza.

Zaiter expressed strong words about Trump, saying, “This man hates the Palestinians and perceives Arabs as animals.” She does not believe he will work to stop the war if reelected.

Rabab Abu Rahma, a high school principal displaced from Gaza City to the Nuseirat refugee camp, in central Gaza, told Al-Monitor, “Honestly, we don’t have electricity to watch the US election [campaign] on television, and there is no internet. We have been cut off from the world for nearly 10 months now because of the Israeli war.”

When asked which US candidate she prefers, however, Abu Rahma said, “I don’t know much about Harris, but I know a lot about Trump. He is a big villain to the Palestinians.”

One analyst who spoke with Al-Monitor believes Harris, while still supporting Israel, may adopt a more moderate approach to the Gaza war, taking into consideration the plight of the civilian population and the deepening humanitarian crisis.

“Although Harris does not oppose Biden’s pro-war position, she opposes Israel’s policies in Gaza, especially when it comes to civilian casualties and the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip,” Talal Okal, a writer for the local Al-Ayyam newspaper, told Al-Monitor.

“Harris said no to the displacement of Palestinians, no to the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, no to the siege, and no to the reduction of its territory,” Okal added. “She supports the reconstruction of vital infrastructure in the enclave and the strengthening of the PA’s security services there.”

Harris seems more willing to publicly criticize Netanyahu and express sympathy for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, he further remarked.

Although Trump has called for a quick end to the war and a return to normalcy, Okal believes that his statements are merely due to the electoral campaign.

“I think Trump is trying to win the votes of Muslim voters in America, but in fact he is the biggest supporter of Israel, and Netanyahu in particular,” he said.

Vote.

[agentrouka-blog]

I always thought Melisandre would be at least partially wrong about her vision beyond it being Sansa rather than Arya. The marriage part in particular; while Sansa is (set to be) betrothed to Harry Hardyng, she has no reason to flee the wedding, and assuming he dies, Littlefinger making his move so soon?

I think it may be correlation instead of causation (Littlefinger is preparing a wedding to either Harry, Robin or himself, while Sansa is leaving independently after learning about 'Arya' to the one person she knows for sure would help her rescue her sister, that being Jon - and Melisandre assumed it was the reason for her departure), the error compounded by Melisandre's knowledge of 'Arya' and her own interpretation.

Certainly she will not be even half right. A conflict is being set up and Melisandre will most likely end up near Dany (making her a one-off POV just to kill her in half a book seems odd) but GRRM has been careful to make a point about her fanaticism and free, mistake-riddled interpretation while leaving a true-enough core to serve as foreshadowing device.

Your post about Melisandre's use to manipulate Jon into trusting her was incredibly on point, but we also shouldn't forget her "daggers in the dark" vision. She is invested in Jon's survival for the reasons you laid out, but she can see what's about to happen, and it runs counter to her goals. So she needs to persuade him to trust her ASAP, to make him listen to her warnings, except it fails. The mutiny takes place, like she warned.

Which means Jon post-resurrection would take Melisandre's visions more seriously - and that can't be in this story, so she'll immediately be wrong about something that drove Jon for the second half of the book. Sansa, not Arya. Not a marriage, maybe not even fleeing (though I do think the Mountain Clan attack theory has merit). Either Melisandre's messed with him and maliciously lied to gain his trust (as far as Jon'll be concerned) or she is much too unreliable to make decisions on basis of her visions.

All of that will probably be revealed before Shireen burns and totally ruins any goodwill Jon would have for her, which in turn means he cannot possibly be Azor Ahai in Melisandre's eyes [I don't think Jon is AA, but Melisandre's clearly considering him subconsciously due to Jon obviously having SOME role to play while she's also clinging to her Stannis interpretation] - and in the meantime, dragon rumors reach Melisandre's ears...

Hi there!

Given all the uncertainties about the exact timing of the Northern plotlines coming up, I find it difficult to make concrete predictions about what will happen when.

But I do suspect that Melisandre will not go on as she has been up until now, especially not the same way as she did in the show.

For one, her plotline has been intensely intertwined with Stannis and how own choices relating to the prophecy and the power Melisandre was willing to invest on his behalf, as well as the things he was willing to let her do for his own gain. It's basically led to a destructive religious fanaticism that is bound to take on a life of its own very soon.

I don't necessarily think that GRRM intends to keep around Melisandre as an essentially unchanged character and simply aim her at a different target this time. The horror that is Shireen's murder - something GRRM has been building up to all this time since their introduction - is bound to have consequences for everyone involved, not just Stannis.

And she isn't needed to connect Dany to the story and prophecy of Azor Ahai. There's a basis for that in Essos already:

Haldon nodded. "Benerro has sent forth the word from Volantis. Her coming is the fulfillment of an ancient prophecy. From smoke and salt was she born to make the world anew. She is Azor Ahai returned … and her triumph over darkness will bring a summer that will never end … death itself will bend its knee, and all those who die fighting in her cause shall be reborn …" (ADWD, Tyrion VI)

Where Mel hailed from, others already wait in the wings.

Plus, the other angle on the prophecy:

 "No one ever looked for a girl," he said. It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it." Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. "I must go to her. I must. Would that I was even ten years younger." (AFFC, Samwell IV)

...and...

He was not a man to be refused. Sam hesitated a moment, then told his tale again as Marywn, Alleras, and the other novice listened. "Maester Aemon believed that Daenerys Targaryen was the fulfillment of a prophecy . . . her, not Stannis, nor Prince Rhaegar, nor the princeling whose head was dashed against the wall." "Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy." Marwyn turned his head and spat a gob of red phlegm onto the floor.  (AFFC, Samwell V)

Melisandre's role in Westeros was, I think, intended to introduce the prophecy and see its destructive potential and the subversion through to the bitter end with Stannis. This provides important context for when this prophecy is brought up with other people, specifically Dany but potentially also Jon. But that doesn't have to and likely won't be happening through Melisandre.

If she walks away from the murder of Shireen essentially unchanged, GRRM would severely undercut his own message about the prophecy.

"An ant who hears the words of a king may not comprehend what he is saying," Melisandre said, "and all men are ants before the fiery face of god. If sometimes I have mistaken a warning for a prophecy or a prophecy for a warning, the fault lies in the reader, not the book.  (ASOS, Davos V)

GRRM chose to focus much of his energy in Melisandre's single POV chapter on showing how a) wrong she is about a lot of things, and b) how much she is trying to compensate for a deeply traumatic past. Melony, lot seven. Much like Daenerys, she is avoiding a confrontation with the past, with her own choices and her immense pain, and focusing on what she believes she has achieved and will achieve. She ignores her own mistakes to a fault. If I look back I am lost. But look back she must in order for her character to have a cohesive arc.

Melisandre is likely to finish her story before ever encountering Dany, and it is likely to involve a harsh reckoning with her own path and failings and false certainties.

If GRRM has all of Team Stannis collapse in the wake of the prophecy, instead of sending Mel on as a straight continuation, he challenges the reader much more openly into questioning the worth and purpose of the prophecy entirely. The issue isn't Mel, its agent, it is the prophecy and how people react to it.

If Dany encounters the prophecy with Melisandre, the blame could be placed on Mel for leading her astray like she did Stannis.

If Dany encounters the prophecy independently, we will be watching a mirror to Stannis unfold, and it will open up a clearer invitation to compare the patterns of how this exact prophecy has influenced different people throughout the centuries of Targaryen rule all in the same destructive way.

It's a warning that is mistaken for a promise, and in this way, it became self-fulfilling.